Written by Jim Murphy
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Wednesday, July 01 2009
Frank Mir kneebars Brock Lesnar at UFC 81. Both men have grown as fighters since their first meeting, but Mir may have improved the most. (Photo: UFC)
The main event of UFC 100 will finally settle the murky heavyweight title picture in the promotion, as former WWE superstar Brock Lesnar will defend against the de facto interim heavyweight champion, Frank Mir. The matchup of Lesnar’s unstoppable takedowns and ungodly size and strength against Mir’s vastly superior technical skills and cerebral approach to the game would be fascinating enough—the fact that Mir already holds a submission victory over Lesnar makes it even more of a compelling confrontation.
Everyone knows the deal with Brock Lesnar. He turned to MMA after becoming a huge star in pro wrestling, and few took him seriously. Some fans even criticized Dana White for signing Lesnar, apparently ignorant to the fact that countless other MMA fighters have been involved with pro wrestling (most notably Josh Barnett, who still wrestles in Japan several times a year). Lesnar made his ‘shoot fighting’ debut in June 2007 on a FEG/Elite XC co-promoted event where he made short work of overmatched Korean kickboxer Min Soo Kim. In October of that year, he signed with the UFC and made his first appearance in promotion’s iconic octagon against Mir at UFC 81 in February 2008. Lesnar was pounding a mudhole in Mir with what UFC commentator Joe Rogan called his ‘canned ham’ sized fists, when he dangled his leg in reach of the BJJ black belt. Mir locked in a deep kneebar, forcing Lesnar to tap.
Since then, Lesnar has improved measurably as a fighter. He pounded tough veteran Heath Herring mercilessly for three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory at UFC 87. He was awarded a UFC title shot against Randy Couture in November and defeated ‘The Natural’ by second round TKO. Some suggested that Lesnar had received a title shot before he’d ‘earned’ it, and certainly it’s remarkable that a fighter with a 2-1 pro record would find himself in that situation. HBO boxing analyst Larry Merchant once countered suggestions that George Foreman didn’t deserve his 1994 title shot against Michael Moorer with the observation: ‘There are many fighters, but only a few stars’. Like George Foreman, Brock Lesnar is a star and the PPV buy rates he delivers validate this claim.
Frank Mir, meanwhile, is one of the best ‘comeback’ stories in the history of MMA. He became UFC heavyweight champion in 2004 by submitting Tim Sylvia, but never had the opportunity to defend his belt due to a serious motorcycle accident. When he finally returned to competition nearly two years later, he didn’t look like a championship level fighter. His physical conditioning had obviously deteriorated and he gave the impression that his heart was no longer in the fight game. He lost two of his first three fights, both by knockout and the lone victory was a decision against an opponent in Dan Christison whom many considered to be overmatched against Mir. He earned the shot against Lesnar by virtue of a submission victory over another ‘prospect’ that hasn’t quite panned out, Antoni Hardonck.
According to ‘conventional wisdom’, the physically imposing Lesnar was not only going to beat Mir but retire him to the broadcast booth. Fight fans welcomed that prospect due to his exceptional work on WEC broadcasts—Mir is very intelligent, articulate, opinionated and quick witted and in his commentary role showcased an encyclopedic knowledge of the fight game to rival the legendary Bas Rutten. Mir wasn’t ready to retire, however, and by virtue of his win over Lesnar reestablished himself as a legitimate heavyweight contender.
At the same time, the win over Lesnar did little to quell his critics who noted that he was being pounded until he became the beneficiary of a ‘rookie mistake’ by a fighter in his second professional bout. Others maintained that he got a lucky break when Lesnar was admonished for hitting to the back of the head, giving Mir time to recover from his initial onslaught. The result of the fight, some would argue, was essentially what happens when you dangle your leg in front of a BJJ black belt.
Mir’s performance against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira shut the ‘haters’ up for good. ‘Big Nog’ had never been knocked out or submitted, and since a 1999 split decision loss to Dan Henderson on a RINGS card had only dropped three other verdicts—twice to Fedor Emelianenko and once to Josh Barnett. At the time, he was widely considered to be the #2 heavyweight in the world behind ‘The Last Emperor’. Nogueira’s ground fighting and submission skills were legendary, and in theory was a much superior striker. Fight fans anticipated a one sided affair, as did oddsmakers who set the
UFC betting lines with Nogueira a hefty -325 favorite.
The prediction of a one sided fight came to pass, only it was Mir who brutalized Nogueira and eventually sent him to his first stoppage loss when referee Herb Dean stopped the fight at 1:54 of the second round. For Mir, it was a wire to wire domination of a fighter few thought could be dominated in such a matter—he knocked Nogueira down twice in the first, once in the second and scored a nifty judo trip takedown for good measure. Most impressive was his improved striking—Mir looked as if he’d been possessed by a professional boxer, demonstrating surprising handspeed as he ‘changed levels’ and landed combination after combination. Even though Dana White revealed after the bout that Nogueira had recently recovered from a staph infection and may not have been 100% that had no bearing on Mir’s obviously improved conditioning and striking technique.
Despite Mir’s amazing comeback and obvious growth as a fighter, he once again enters as a substantial underdog (one of the most respected places to
bet on UFC, Sports 1 Sportsbook has Lesnar a -220 favorite, with a +180 takeback on Mir). From a bookmaking standpoint, that disparate price is understandable due to Lesnar’s status as champion and his overwhelming popularity with the general public. Viewed from an analytical perspective, however, this is a much closer fight.
So what’s changed since Mir’s first victory over Lesnar? Lesnar has no doubt improved as a fighter, but his skillset is still his takedown ability and sheer physical strength. His striking has always been very sharp given his experience level, but Mir is likely the superior technical puncher. And even if Lensar has worked on some BJJ and submission defense, that won’t be anywhere near enough to negate the formidable skills of Mir who has a black belt under highly regarded Ricardo Pires.
Lesnar certainly has enough brute strength and punching power to win this fight. The reality, though, is that with all due respect he doesn’t have the experience to hang with Mir on the ground. Taking nothing away from Lesnar or the two men he’s defeated since his UFC debut, both Heath Herring and Randy Couture were made to order for him to beat. Herring’s poor takedown defense is legendary, and while Couture is rightfully considered one of the icons of the sport he was physically overwhelmed by his much larger opponent. Couture spent much of his career at light heavyweight, while Lesnar is a gargantuan 6’3” and has to cut weight to get down to the heavyweight limit of 265. Neither opponent was much of a submission threat, and thus Lesnar’s ability to defend hasn’t really been tested since his loss to Mir. It’s also easy to forget that Mir is almost as big as Lesnar—he’s the same height and while not as powerfully built walks around in the 250 pound range.
The problem for Lensar is that he’ll likely want to take Mir down, put him on his back and pound away, and since his takedowns are the most impossible to defend in the sport will likely make that happen. Only thing is that he’ll then be on the mat with the best heavyweight submission specialist in MMA, who also fights off his back better than certainly any heavyweight in the sport and arguably better than any *fighter* in the sport with the exception of lightweight phenom Shinya Aoki.
Anything can happen in a mixed martial arts bout, which is a good part of the sport’s appeal. Still, with Mir being the more experienced and technically sound of the two and possessing world class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills and a keen ‘fighting intellect’ it’ll hardly be a surprise if after UFC 100 Brock Lesnar is introduced as a ‘former UFC heavyweight champion’.
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